Sometimes 7-11’s unscientific coffee cup poll is a good overall predictor of the actual national election results, other times not really at all. But, 7-11 is letting customers vote this weekend by buying either a blue Obama cup or a red Romney cup. And if you’re frustrated with both candidates, then you can ask for a plain white cup instead, according to one source.
While the president appears to be building a small national lead in most scientific polls, the unscientific 7-11 coffee cup poll finds the president building up a huge landslide 60-40% lead over challenger Mitt Romney so far. However, to illustrate just how unscientific these 7-11 results are, Obama actually has a lead in Utah of all places, a state that a Democrat hasn’t won since 1964 with LBJ. Certainly, Obama will not be winning the actual election in Utah, Arizona, Texas, South Carolina or many other “red” states this year, yet the demographics of 7-11 customers seem to be favoring the president in all participating states except Idaho and West Virginia right now.
However, there is one unknown variable within the scientific polls that remains a big question, and that’s turnout. Scientific polls might actually be understating the true level of actual support for the president by only including the most likely of all voters. Among all voters, Obama actually enjoys a lead of something like 52-37%, but a far more narrow lead among the most likely voters that all scientific polls are including. This and the unscientific 7-11 results might indicate that Obama could actually win the election by a margin even wider than his 2008 victory, although his electoral vote count might be slightly lower than 2008 as he is highly likely to lose in Indiana, and states like New Hampshire, Iowa, Colorado and North Carolina remain very close, and only slightly in his favor.
Certainly, the unscientific 7-11 coffee cup poll is interesting, but nothing that you would want to bank on. For his part, Mitt Romney might just want to play Monopoly down at McDonald’s instead, and forget all this 7-11 coffee cup stuff.