As a sign of just how damaging Karl Rove’s woefully inaccurate political analysis was this year, FOX News has decided to push the former architect of two victories by President George W. Bush off the air. It’s only a further blow to the reputation of this once respected top tier political strategist and analyst, who once was thought of being in the same league with other major political strategists and analysts such as Mary Matalin, James Carville, and others.
Karl Rove advanced wrong theories this year of a near certain Romney win by citing some wrong analysis involving early voting figures. Rove’s analysis was later proven wrong by the actual early voting figures from states such as Iowa, where Romney clearly won among the election day voters, however successful Democratic get out the vote efforts thanks to the Democrats own Houdini software used by their campaign offices gave President Obama a huge edge among early and absentee voters. Karl Rove was also not able to understand the difference in the software that both campaigns used to track voters for their respective get out out the vote efforts. While the Houdini software used by the Democrats had years of development behind it and worked very successfully, by election day, the newer ORCA software developed by the Romney Campaign was mostly faulty and failed to give his campaign the data needed to turn out thousands of possible GOP voters. Further, Rove seemed to draw too many wrong insights from the faulty internal polls from the Romney Campaign that made faulty statistical adjustments to lower the number of Democratic voters that they thought might be overrepresented in the major public polls. Rove failed to see this statistical flaw that the Romney Campaign was using that actually showed their ticket running ahead in states like Colorado and New Hampshire, as well as much closer in other key states than the campaign ever really was.
Further, independent computer critics blasted the ORCA software for not being properly tested in beta versions, not having enough bandwidth to work with, as well having pin number problems with the campaign volunteers among serious development flaws. Karl Rove simply relied on too much wrong information coming out of Romney Campaign along with failures of his own, only contributing to his embarrassingly wrong analysis this year.
Rove also incorrectly assumed that many undecided voters would swing heavily behind the challenger, Romney, on election day. However, in his defense, Rove also grossly underestimated the effect that Hurricane Sandy would have on the election in the final week. The storm gave the president the opportunity to respond to the crisis using all of the tools of FEMA and government, while Romney’s press coverage fell sharply, probably costing Romney a serious momentum shift away from him in the critical last few days of the campaign.
In fact, this momentum shift has only continued since the election itself, where the president has been able to capitalize on his support for middle class tax relief during this fiscal cliff debate, where his popularity numbers have been riding higher over at public polling sites such as Rasmussen and Gallup. At Rasmussen, his latest approval figures were at 56% to 40% public approval, some of his best numbers since early into his first term. Had this fiscal cliff debate occurred before the election, Romney would likely had lost by an even greater margin, and the president might have pulled even more Democrats to victory in congressional races than he did on election day, where Republicans only made some inroads among governor races, but losing strength among state legislative and congressional races.
Over at FOX News, more accurate political analysts for both Republicans and Democrats will likely get more time with Karl Rove off their team. Dick Morris is also being retired from FOX as well, largely because much of his political analysis was so off-base as well. During the election, FOX gave these two inaccurate political analysts a lot of air time, now their inaccurate analysis has cost both their jobs as FOX hopes to rebuild their credibility with more accurate political analysis.
Rove also wildly challenged FOX for making the call of Ohio for the president on election night during a near meltdown on the air, leading to some awkyard moments where Rove seemed be insisting that his own flawed statistical methods compared to the reality at hand were correct. This was probably one of the last straws for the management of this conservative leaning network, and Rove’s days at FOX were probably numbered at that moment.