Scott Elliot has an uncanny ability to to analyze statistics and polling data, and for the past several years has been earning high praise as having one of the most accurate election polling data analysis sites. His ELECTION PROJECTION 2012 website has to be one of the best election sites to follow this year along with REAL CLEAR POLITICS. Although Scott’s own politics lean toward the conservative side, he’s able to clearly analyze data in a subjective manner without the bias that plagues some polling organizations. And since Scott relies on his special mathematical and statistics analysis formulas, and does not conduct polling of his own, he is able to come up with a unique statistics analysis website.
Using his own unique statistics analysis methods, Scott is predicting that Rick Santorum edges out a win in today’s Iowa caucuses with 24% of the vote. Mitt Romney follows at 23%. Ron Paul will have about 22% according to Scott’s methodology. Scott views the momentum that Santorum has built in recent days as a further proof that Santorum will win.
Scott may be exactly right here. Compared to the more moderate Republican voters in New Hampshire, Iowa Republicans seem to have a much higher percentage of Christian conservative and social conservative voters, where past social conservative candidates like Pat Robertson and Pat Buchanan have historically done very well in Iowa, but have done far less well in New Hampshire, and ultimately failed to be nominated. Scott also seems to have a hunch that Mitt Romney still might be the unstoppable nominee, especially if he scores well in Iowa and New Hampshire, and deals a quick knockout blow to the other candidates.
While there is great excitement about today’s first election event of 2012, Scott does manage to temper that excitement with his ongoing electoral college analysis for 2012, where predicts that President Obama wins re-election in 2012, but by a smaller margin of victory than 2008. And he only loses two states that he won in 2008, Indiana and North Carolina, otherwise the 2012 election outcome is the same as 2008. For all of the money spent on elections this year, we might still end up with the same outcome that we already have. In Iowa, for example, it has been said that about $200 per caucus voter has been spent by the campaigns and PACs.
Scott comes from an interesting background. His parents were two of the first group of Christian missionaries in Iraq after Saddam Hussein was overthrown in the war. But, both were tragically killed in one of the first attacks of sectarian violence by a roadside bomb. Their deaths were one of the first of the wave of violence that made the country very unsafe for foreign workers in that nation until security measures were greatly improved.
Scott has also earned himself the nickname, “The Blogging Caesar”, which seems pretty accurate for someone so accurate in their analysis of politics. PBS, CNN and many other news sources have praised Scott’s work before. He remains possibly the greatest armchair political pundit of them all. And you have to really admire Scott’s website. It’s one of the best analysis sites of them all. You should check it out, or better yet make him a Paypal donation to keep up the good work. I was a paid subscriber to his paid site before in previous years because I’m a fan of his interesting work with statistics. And good work deserves a reward.